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What if the Prigozhin “Coup” is Maskirovka? I want to explore that possibility. Earlier today (Saturday on the east coast of the U.S.) I was sketching out a piece with the catchy title, “PRIGOZHIN — PUTSCH OR PLOY?” Well, that swell idea was blown away like the Kakhovka Dam when the narrative about the Prigozhin plan to march on Moscow and personally strangle Russian Defense Minister Shoigu went full-on Nadia Comăneci — i.e., back flip. Prigozhin ordered “his” troops back to their bases, cut a deal with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to go into exile and will face no judicial punishment. WHAT????? No bloodshed? No miles of burning tanks? And no Mussolini neck tie for Vladimir Putin? What the hell?!!如果普里戈任“政变”是战争骗术呢?我想探索这种可能性。今天早些时候(星期六在美国东海岸)我正在草拟一篇文章，题目很朗朗上口，“普里戈任——政变还是阴谋?”好吧，当关于普里戈任计划进攻莫斯科并亲自勒死俄罗斯国防部长绍伊古的叙述完全被Nadia comurneci(即后空翻)所淹没时，这个绝妙的想法就像卡霍夫卡大坝一样被吹走了。普里戈任命令“他的”军队回到基地，与白俄罗斯总统亚历山大·卢卡申科达成协议，他将流亡国外，不会受到任何司法惩罚。什么? ?没有流血?没有燃烧的坦克吗?弗拉基米尔·普京没有墨索里尼式的领带?搞什么鬼?!

Man, you could feel the disappointment and frustration emanating from the Washington establishment. The political equivalent of premature ejaculation. Last night (Friday) you could hear the popping of champagne corks and popcorn as media and intelligence officials huddled around computer screens awaiting images of a distraught Putin running naked away from the Kremlin. Biden and his team remind me of Wiley Coyote in terms of the despair，they suffer as they watch their harebrained schemes to catch Putin crash and burn.While I cannot firmly dismiss the possibility that Prigozhin attempted this coup on his own (or with the encouragement of an outside backer), I want to present the Maskirovka scenario.天哪，你可以感受到来自华盛顿建制派的失望和沮丧。政治上相当于早泄。昨晚(周五)，你可以听到香槟酒瓶塞和爆米花的爆裂声，媒体和情报官员挤在电脑屏幕前，等待着心急如焚的普京从克里姆林宫裸奔而出的画面。拜登和他的团队让我想起了绝望的威利狼，他们眼睁睁地看着自己轻率的抓捕普京的计划一败涂地。虽然我不能断然否认普里戈任自己(或在外部支持者的鼓励下)试图发动这场政变的可能性，但我想展示一下这是“战争骗术”的情况。

Let us start with these facts:1.The Wagner Group was established by Russian intelligence organizations and funded by the Russian Government. Many in the West mistakenly believe that Prigozhin has deep pockets and is paying Wagner’s bills and, despite having ZERO military experience, is the commander of the outfit. As the Russians say, NYET!2.Russia is considered by the U.S. and the rest of NATO as a dictatorship. Prigozhin has been shooting his mouth off for months spouting threats against the Russian military and, indirectly, at Putin but has suffered no arrest or sanction. Does this mean Russia is not a dictatorship?让我们从这些事实开始：1.瓦格纳集团是由俄罗斯情报机构建立的，由俄罗斯政府资助。许多西方国家错误地认为，普里戈任财力雄厚，正在支付瓦格纳的账单，尽管他没有任何军事经验，但他是这支部队的指挥官。就像俄罗斯人说的，没有!2.俄罗斯被美国和北约其他成员国视为独裁国家。几个月来，普里戈任一直在滔滔不绝地威胁俄罗斯军方，并间接威胁普京，但他没有被捕或受到制裁。这是否意味着俄罗斯不是一个独裁国家?

3.Prigozhin ostensibly launched the coup, according to his own words on Friday, because the Russian MOD hit an encampment of Wagner troops training for war with missiles, shells and rockets. But the alleged video of the incident showed no casualties. Today, Prigozhin backed away from that claim and now insists he was just protesting the MOD’s move to bring the Wagner Group into the Russian Army.4.The Russian Government waited about 12 hours before sending police/military forces to the Wagner Group headquarters in St. Petersburg. Little sense of urgency.5.Prigozhin reportedly ordered a column of Wagner troops to go from Rostov on Don to Moscow to dethrone Shoigu and maybe General Gerasimov. Take a look at the map. That is a distance of almost 1200 kilometers. How was that column of trucks and tanks supposed to refuel and cover that distance in less than 20 hours?3.根据普里戈任自己周五的说法，他假装发动了政变，因为俄罗斯国防部用导弹、炮弹和火箭袭击了瓦格纳军队的一个营地。但据称该事件的视频显示没有人员伤亡。今天，普里戈任放弃了这一说法，现在坚称他只是在抗议国防部将瓦格纳集团纳入俄罗斯军队的举动。4.俄罗斯政府等了大约12个小时才派遣警察/军队前往圣彼得堡的瓦格纳集团总部。没有紧迫感。5.据报道，普里戈任命令瓦格纳的一支纵队从顿河的罗斯托夫前往莫斯科，推翻绍伊古，也许还有格拉西莫夫将军。看一下地图。这是近1200公里的距离。那一队卡车和坦克怎么可能在不到20小时内加油并走完那段距离?

How about this as an explanation? The entire coup narrative was generated to allow for the movement of Russian military forces to areas north and west of Voronezh without raising the alarm among NATO planners. Russia was moving forces to stop coup plotters as opposed to building up forces for a new axis of offense.It appears that the roots of the narrative that Prigozhin was going to betray Russia starts in 2022. Someone with ties to Western intelligence had a relationship with Prigozhin and began sounding him out about collaborating with the West. Prigozhin let his Russian intel bosses know about the pitch and the Russians decided to build an op that would present Prigozhin as a disgruntled patriot, boiling in anger at the incompetence of Russian leaders. The Russians fed this by letting Prigozhin launch vicious verbal attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov and, if we are to believe the Jack Teixeira discord leaks, even passed intel on the locations of Russian troops to his intel handler.这样解释一下怎么样?整个政变叙事的产生，是为了让俄罗斯军队在不引起北约规划者警觉的情况下，向沃罗涅日北部和西部地区转移。俄罗斯正在调动军队阻止政变策划者，而不是为新的进攻轴心集结军队。看来，关于普里戈任要背叛俄罗斯的说法始于2022年。与西方情报部门有联系的人与普里戈任有关系，并开始试探他与西方合作的事。普里戈任让他的俄罗斯情报部门的老板们知道了这个消息，俄罗斯人决定策划一个行动，把普里戈任塑造成一个心怀不满的爱国者，对俄罗斯领导人的无能感到愤怒。俄罗斯人让普里戈任对绍伊古和格拉西莫夫进行恶毒的口头攻击，如果我们相信杰克·特谢拉泄密的话，他们甚至把俄罗斯军队所在地的情报传递给了他的情报主管。

Here is the interesting part of this hypothesis — who made the decision to launch Prigozhin? A credible argument can be made that the Prigozhin’s Western handlers decided that Friday was the day and ordered him into action. But I think this was stage managed in the Kremlin. Putin and his intel chiefs knew what the West was trying to foment in Russia and realized that Ukraine and NATO were reeling from their feckless counter offensive and its attendant massive losses in men and materiel. Why not use the coup attempt as a good cover story for the mass movement of troops all along the line between Moscow and Rostov on Don?This is a way to move Russian troops to areas north of Belgorod without drawing the unwelcome attention of NATO ISR platforms. Move the troops closer to the border and then disperse them. Which means Russia found a way to reinforce troops on a new potential axis of attack that will create a nightmare for NATO planners.这是这个假设中有趣的部分——谁决定推出普里戈任？一个可信的说法是，普里戈任的西方操纵者决定在周五采取行动，命令他采取行动。但我认为这是克里姆林宫精心策划的。普京和他的情报主管们知道西方试图在俄罗斯煽动什么，并意识到乌克兰和北约正因他们软弱无力的反击战以及随之而来的大量人员和物资损失而摇摇欲坠。为什么不把政变企图作为一个很好的掩护，来掩护从莫斯科到顿河上罗斯托夫这条线上的大规模军队调动?这是一种将俄罗斯军队转移到别尔哥罗德以北地区的方式，而不会引起北约监视与侦察平台针对性的关注。把部队调到边境附近，然后把他们疏散。这意味着俄罗斯找到了一种在新的潜在攻击轴心上增援部队的方法，这将给北约规划者带来噩梦。

Think of the coup as rabbit running across an open field. Hungry predators hiding in the forest may be tempted to expose themselves in an effort to snag a bunny. Did some of the reactions in Russia to news of the suspected coup help Russian counter intelligence identify people in positions of authority in Russia who, until now, quietly rooted for Ukraine? Maybe.I also want to entertain a hilarious possibility. Did Prigozhin scam his western handlers out of millions of dollars? Yevgeny does have a criminal past and is known for sticky fingers. Did he draw on his criminal past and fleece the British or the Americans? Could be a terrific story.Anyway, after less than 24 hours of drama, we are left with the mournful, but beautiful voice of Peggy Lee singing, Is That All There Is?把政变想象成兔子跑过开阔的田野。躲在森林里的饥饿的捕食者可能会暴露自己，试图抓住一只兔子。俄罗斯国内对疑似政变消息的一些反应，是否帮助俄罗斯反情报部门找出了在俄罗斯掌权的人士，这些人直到现在还在默默支持乌克兰?也许吧。我还想考虑过一个搞笑的可能性。普里戈任是否从他的西方操纵者那里骗走了数百万美元?叶夫根尼（译注：指普里戈任）确实有犯罪前科，以黏手著称。他有没有利用自己的犯罪历史来敲诈英国人或美国人?那会是个很棒的故事。不管怎样，在不到24小时的闹剧之后，我们只剩下佩姬·李（美国著名演员，歌手，创作人）悲伤而又美丽的歌声《这就是一切吗》？