Emre Alkin, （土耳其籍经济学家） 我们也许见证了特朗普颁布的史上最罕见的技术禁令之一。美国及其盟友发起的“抵制中国公司”的行动基本上都针对华为。 在类似的情况下，应该像开展经济分析一样进行政治分析，不过由于我是一名经济学家，我更倾向于保持在技术道路上。之后我将发表一篇有关这个问题的社会经济和政治经济文章。 保护主义是各国在其对外依存度超过可容忍程度时采取的一种方法。回顾历史，我发现很难找到任何证据表明保护主义对经济有任何帮助。甚至那些对经济史产生巨大影响的哲学家也鼓励人类接受并促进国际合作与协作。如今，全球最大的出口国是中国和美国，但它们也是最大的两个进口国。虽然美国向全球各地出口广泛的产品和技术，但是成千上万的西方公司在中国成立了制造基地。事实上，美国公司在中国生产的产品有一半以上是销往美国的。他们选择中国的原因不仅仅是廉价劳动力，而且，中国人不再与廉价劳动力联系在一起，所以，这也是为了“合适的工作环境”。 特朗普的反华行动以及他选择华为这个方便的替罪羊，并没有产生任何实际的益处。在特朗普执政之前，美国的前任总统也曾向技术开战，想要回到过去，就像所有这些前任领导人的行动一样，特朗普的行动也导致了重大的后果，给他的国家和盟友都带来了痛苦，可以说，这是一场惨胜，为此付出了极大代价。 据路透社报道，作为英国最大的移动和宽带公司，英国电信将华为的设备从其EE移动网络中移除，为此损失了近5亿英镑。同样，沃达丰将2亿欧元扔出窗外，而德国电信可能不得不花费数十亿欧元来替换华为的天线。至于美国政府，它曾以为19亿美元的预算拨款就能够移除华为的设备，然而，所有的替换工作花费了56亿美元，高于美国国会后来修订的53亿美元的价格。 一直被特朗普的行动所困扰的加拿大总理特鲁多未能顶住压力，加入了反华行动。特鲁多指示运营商拆除中国华为技术有限公司生产的电信设备，但不愿意出资支付约10亿加元的设备拆除费用。因此，加拿大境内的欧洲电信运营商起诉了加拿大政府。这个问题仍然没有得到解决。我不想再次讨论华为首席财务官遭受的不公平待遇，但它将作为一个悲喜交加的故事永远印刻在我们的记忆中。 竞争促使人们做得更好。另一方面，技术有助于降低生产成本，使生产者能够以更加合理的价格出售其商品和服务。但是，当竞争被打乱时，经济就会陷入通货膨胀的漩涡，并一直难以走出困境。针对华为的禁令导致欧洲人在每一个可以想象的行业和领域（例如农业、矿业、航空、艺术或体育）突然面临着300亿欧元的价格飙升，因为这些行业和领域如今无法获得无限且低成本的5G优势。以下是一些国家在华为没有参与其5G部署的情况下，每年所需的估计支出：德国4.79亿欧元，法国4.47亿欧元，英国3.74亿欧元，西班牙2.92亿欧元。 “再一次，付出代价的是人民” 由于这项禁令，先前提出的160亿欧元的欧盟太空计划现在已经增加至300亿欧元。这的确是一项巨大的成本攀升。显然，现在人们将不得不通过税收和其他手段为此付出代价。电信运营商和互联网服务提供商将导致欧盟公民承担不断增加的成本。当全球正在遭受通货膨胀时，人们将不得不为通信支付更多的费用，而通信是当今人类最基本的权利之一。分析师表示，移除中国厂商提供的基础设施导致欧洲的5G基础设施成本增加了550亿美元，部署时间推迟了一年半。 根据我在多次出行期间的观察，可以说，由于成本飙升，各国正在纷纷推迟5G投资。由于人们不愿意为昂贵且不充分的服务付费，运营商和提供商将暂停有关5G连接的投资。在建设和部署5G技术方面的大幅延迟将导致发达国家在技术和太空竞赛中落后。 最重要的是，这些国家将遭受严重的GDP损失。例如，由于5G部署的延迟，英国的GDP估计将减少45亿至68亿英镑，而法国的GDP预计将因同样的原因下降73亿美元。不幸的是，在消灭华为的斗争中，这些国家都不知不觉地伤害了自己的利益。 不过，当实施了这项针对中国技术的禁令时，网络攻击停止了吗？并没有。2021年，欧洲发生了50亿次网络攻击，与前一年相比增加了495%。美国前总统的决定导致美国半导体行业遭受了70亿美元的损失。由于这场非理性的行动，与华为合作的美国公司的市值下降，使其投资者蒙受损失。 那么，华为受到上述行动的影响有多大？考虑到四年前的情况，这家中国电信设备制造商好像几乎没有受到影响。禁令实施的第一年，华为的销售额大幅下滑，但市场份额并没有下降。在选择继续经营而非停止经营之后，该公司继续进行创新，打造了新产品、服务和解决方案，先是将年利润的15.3%用于研发投资，之后增长至25.1%。如今，华为在云解决方案中把数字能源与自动化相结合，与此同时，尽管面临着各种障碍，华为仍然保持着强劲的市场份额。事实上，华为最近在数字市场发布了两款全新的智能设备。 中国早在2006年就提出了高科技战略自主。但是我们可以看到，2019年美国对华为实施制裁之前，这一战略在商业层面的执行并不十分坚决。毕竟，中国当时并不需要在研发方面投入大量资金，因为它可以获得更好的美国高科技产品。美国对华为的制裁给中国政府和企业敲响了警钟。中国不仅有必要而且迫切需要投资先进技术和工艺。讽刺的是，美国的制裁把一个不确定的愿景变成了一项关键任务，大大加快了各方面投资的力度和步伐，实现突破只是时间问题。 至于土耳其，在这个拥有贯穿东西、比勃朗峰还高的山脉的国家安装5G网络基础设施并不容易。由于土耳其以理性的方式管理其与美国的盟友关系，它不必暂停与俄罗斯和中国的贸易往来。考虑到华为先前在困难地区成功地部署了5G网络，这家中国科技巨头似乎是最适合土耳其的“解决方案”。华为在伊斯坦布尔设立了一个实验室和一个培训中心，鼓励当地的大学生获得认证，发展ICT行业的实用技能。我必须承认，我曾多次参观他们的设施，并惊叹于那里的活力。 在土耳其从中国进口的产品中，排名第一的是通信设备，不出所料，其次是电话和电气设备，而工业机械和设备则位列第三，这些产品的价值总额达数十亿美元。但应该指出的是，土耳其也向中国出售同一类别的物项。两国拥有既定的合作。很明显，中国对土耳其的贸易顺差巨大。然而，土耳其公司并没有被巨额顺差所吓倒，而是选择不参与美国发起的政治迫害行动。要想切换至5G，土耳其需要至少200万公里的光纤网络和微波技术。由于地震频发，土耳其的几乎每座城市，特别是拥有数百万居民的伊斯坦布尔，都需要转型为“智慧城市”。因此，土耳其并不奢望切断与华为等公司的联系。我相信，土耳其的外交管理非常务实，这符合本国的需要。 我想提醒各位，土耳其的总研发投资只有华为的三分之一，这意味着该国尽管面临着特朗普的压力，但做出的决定是基于自身现状的考虑。土耳其没有将华为视为一个单纯的手机品牌，而是一个技术方案合作伙伴。 与朋友、同事、股东协商做出艰难的决定，可以帮助你度过困难时期。 https://emrealkin.com/en/who-was-hurt-the-most-by-the-huawei-ban/ 外文原文： Who Was Hurt the Most by the HUAWEI Ban? EMRE ALKIN Maybe In history, we saw one of the rarest examples of banning technology with Trump. “Boycotting Chinese Firms” launched by the United States and its allies had generally targeted Huawei. In similar cases, a political analysis should be run as well as an economic analysis, but since I am an economist, I prefer to stay on the technical lane today. A socio-economic and political-economic article on this issue will come at a later date. Protectionism is a method that countries resort to when their foreign dependence surpasses the tolerance level. Looking back at history, I find it difficult to find any evidence showing that protectionism has helped the economy in any way. Even the philosophers who have greatly influenced economic history encouraged humanity to embrace and promote international cooperation and collaboration. Today, the largest exporters in the world are China and the US, but they are also the top two importers. While the US exports a wide range of products and technology to the world, thousands of Western companies have manufacturing bases in China. In fact, US companies sell more than half of what they produce in China to the US. The reason why they choose China is not only about cheap labour, besides, the Chinese are no longer associated with cheap labour, so, it is also about “the right work environment”. Trump’s campaign against China and the fact that he chose Huawei a convenient scapegoat did not have any practical advantage. Just like the actions of all leaders before him, who waged war against technology and wanted to go back to old times, Trump’s actions too led to major consequences that inflicted suffering both upon his country and his allies, a Pyrrhic victory, if you will. According to Reuters, BT, Britain’s largest mobile and broadband company, sacrificed nearly 500 million pounds to remove Huawei’s equipment from its EE mobile network. Similarly, Vodafone threw 200 million euros out the window, while Deutsche Telekom might have to spend billions to replace Huawei antennas. As for the US government, it thought that it would get rid of Huawei equipment by allocating $1.9 billion from the budget, however, this whole swap cost it 5.6 billion, a price greater than $5.3 billion, which the US Congress later revised. Canadian PM Trudeau, who has been constantly disturbed by the actions of Trump, could not stand the pressure and joined the anti-Chinese campaign. Instructing the operators to remove telecommunications equipment made by China’s Huawei Technologies, Trudeau was reluctant to contribute to cover the cost of around 1 Billion Canadian Dollars to remove the gear. So, European telecom operators in Canada sued the government. The issue still remains unresolved. I do not want to once again go into this whole unfair treatment of the chief financial officer of Huawei, but it will forever remain imprinted in our memories as a sad-comic story. Competition drives people to do better. Technology, on the other hand, helps reduce production costs, allowing producers to sell their goods and services at more reasonable prices. But, when the competition gets disrupted, the economy falls into a spiral of inflation and continuously struggles to get out of it. The Huawei ban caused Europeans to get suddenly exposed to a price increase of 30 billion euros in every imaginable industry and domain, such as agriculture, mining, aviation, arts, or sports, which are now cut off from the advantages of unlimited and low-cost 5G. Here are the estimated amounts some countries have to spend each year in the absence of Huawei in their 5G deployment: Germany 479 million euros, France 447 million euros, United Kingdom 374 million euros, Spain 292 million euros. “Once Again, It’s the People Who Pay the Price.” As a result of the ban, the previously proposed €16 billion EU space programme has now increased to €30 billion. A major cost increase indeed. Obviously now the people will have to pay for this through taxes and other means. Telecom operators and internet service providers will burden the citizens of the EU with increasing costs. While the world is suffering from inflation, people will have to pay more for communication, which is among the most basic rights of human beings today. Analysts say that removing Chinese infrastructure made the 5G infrastructure in Europe $55B more expensive and delayed it by one and a half years. Based on the observations I made throughout my travels, I could say that the 5G investments are being postponed one by one due to soaring costs. Since people would not want to pay money for an expensive yet inadequate service, operators and providers will suspend their investments in 5G connectivity. This big delay in building and deploying 5G technology will cause developed countries to fall behind in the technology and space race. To top it all off, these countries will suffer serious GDP losses. The United Kingdom, for example, is estimated to lose 4.5 to 6.8 billion pounds of GDP due to the delay of 5G deployment, while GDP in France is expected to decline by 7.3 billion dollars for the same reason. Unfortunately, in the fight to eliminate Huawei, they all unwittingly hurt their own interests. But, when the ban was imposed on Chinese technology, did the cyber-attacks stop? No, they did not. In 2021, five billion attacks took place in Europe, with an increase of 495% compared to the previous year. The decisions of the former president of the United States caused the US Semiconductor Industry to suffer a loss of seven billion dollars. The market values of US companies working with Huawei have also decreased because of this irrational campaign, making their investors lose money. So how much has Huawei been affected by this campaign? Considering the last four years ago, the Chinese telecom equipment maker seems to be hardly affected by it. There was a significant decline in sales in the first year of the ban, but not in its market share. Having chosen to run instead of stopping, the company continued to innovate with new products, services and solutions by allocating first 15.3% then 25.1% of its annual profit to R&D investments. Today, Huawei combines digital power with automation in cloud solutions, while strongly holding to its market share despite all obstacles. In fact, two new smart devices were recently released into the digital market by Huawei. China had put forward a high-tech strategic autonomy as early as 2006. However, we can see that prior to the US sanctions on Huawei in 2019, the progress of this strategy at the commercial level was not very resolute. After all, in the past, China did not need to invest heavily in research and development as it could enjoy better high-tech products from the United States. The US sanctions on Huawei sounded an alarm for the Chinese government and businesses, making it not only necessary but also urgent to invest in advanced technology and processes. Ironically, the US sanctions turned an indecisive vision into a critical task, greatly accelerating the intensity and pace of investment from all aspects, and achieving breakthroughs is only a matter of time. As for Turkey, it is not easy to install a 5G network infrastructure in a country with mountains higher than Mont Blanc that run from the west to the east. Since Turkey managed its alliance with the United States in a rational manner, it didn’t have to suspend its trade relations with Russia and China. Considering Huawei’s previous success in 5G network installation in rough geographies, the Chinese tech giant seems like the most suitable “solution” for Turkey. Huawei has a lab and a training centre in Istanbul where university students are encouraged to get certification and develop practical skills for the ICT industry. I must say that I have visited their facility many times and was amazed by the dynamism there. The top item among Turkey’s imports from China is communication equipment, unsurprisingly followed by phones and electrical devices, while industrial machinery and devices occupy the third spot, all of them totalling to billions of dollars. But it should be noted that Turkey also sells items to China in the same category. There is an established cooperation between the two countries. Obviously, China runs a strong trade surplus against Turkey. However, not intimidated by this giant surplus, Turkish companies chose not to participate in the witch hunt initiated by the US. Turkey needs at least 2 million km of fibre optic network and microwave technologies to switch to 5G. Due to frequent earthquakes, almost every city in the country, particularly Istanbul with millions of habitants, needs to be transformed into “smart cities”. So, Turkey does not have the luxury of cutting ties with companies like Huawei. I believe that Turkish diplomacy is managed in a very pragmatic way in line with the country’s needs. Let me also remind you that Turkey’s total R&D investments are only one-third of Huawei’s, which means that, despite Trump’s pressure, Turkey made a decision being aware of its own realities. In Turkey, Huawei is not considered a mere mobile phone brand, but rather a technological solution partner. Making tough decisions in consultation with friends, colleagues, shareholders can help you get through difficult times. If you have read my previous articles about Huawei’s management style, I’m sure you can understand what I mean.