As companies and brands rise and fall, industrial mass production has transformed essential goods from scarcity to abundance, and even excess. The automotive industry is now standing at another historical turning point.

Whether it's the cutthroat competition between automakers or the rise of new brands and the fall of familiar ones, this is nothing new for multinational giants like Toyota, Volkswagen, and Hyundai. After all, they climbed to the top by defeating one rival after another—yet now their future feels even more precarious, like walking on thin ice.

While it's difficult for new brands to break through, collapse has always been the main theme. The turbulent ups and downs of China’s auto market in recent years have laid bare the brutal reality.

After Volkswagen entered the Chinese market through joint ventures, China’s auto industry entered its first period of rapid growth. New joint-venture automakers emerged one after another, while independent Chinese brands such as BYD, Geely, and Chery also began to break through, struggling to carve out a path to survival.

Don’t be fooled by how dominant China’s “Big Four” independent brands appear today—they got to where they are by beating many formidable competitors. Some of those rivals once gained viral popularity online, using exaggerated marketing and copied designs to enjoy short-lived success, but were eventually buried by history. Brands like Zotye, Landwind, and Xiali are prime examples.

As car consumption surged, automakers rapidly expanded capacity and accelerated new model development. This wave ultimately crushed those companies that lacked independent R&D and control capabilities. And now, history is repeating itself—from domestic brands to joint ventures, from fuel-powered to new energy vehicles (NEVs).

Who will have the last laugh remains uncertain, because the nature of cars has changed drastically, and the rules of the market are shifting constantly.

Against the backdrop of a second growth wave fueled by the SUV boom, many second- and third-tier multinational brands either exited the Chinese market or repositioned themselves as niche players. Meanwhile, Chinese independent brands have regained dominance and are now aggressively expanding overseas.

Auto shows have become a mirror of market shifts. And although more companies are entering than leaving, some brands—like Mitsubishi, Suzuki, and Fiat—have disappeared entirely from view. Booths for Mazda, Ford, and Hyundai are also gradually being pushed to the sidelines.

After years of development, China has become the world's largest auto market, with the most diverse range of brands and models. But even in the biggest market, the law of survival of the fittest still applies—it’s just a matter of time before someone gets pushed out.

We don’t know which company will be the next to withdraw from the market or the Shanghai Auto Show, but we do know this: one of them definitely will, and it will happen sooner than expected. Beneath the glamour of the Shanghai Auto Show lies the harsh pain of market competition.

Rather than calling China’s NEV movement a case of “overtaking on a curve,” it might be more accurate to call it a “black swan” in the global auto industry.

From heated debates over future powertrain technologies to state-level battles over autonomous driving, electric and intelligent vehicles have already become a core force driving market transformation. They are reshaping the global landscape of the industry—and even shifting the balance of geopolitical power.

Thanks to massive investment and a high tolerance for trial and error, China’s auto industry has managed to secure a foothold in the global market. Represented by companies like BYD and Chery, Chinese automakers have truly achieved technological independence and no longer fear being held back by foreign giants.

With the combined efforts of Tesla and the “Wei-Xiao-Li” trio (NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto), as well as traffic powerhouses like Huawei and Xiaomi, Chinese consumers' mindset toward cars has fundamentally changed. The aura of big brands is fading, and product definition, features, and quality have become the key factors influencing purchasing decisions.

From the initial opening of NEV production licenses to the eventual dual-license approval for the “Wei-Xiao-Li” trio, NEVs have evolved from policy-driven experiments into mainstream consumer products. Their diversity and quality are now enough to serve global demand.

From the early bold claims of NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto, to Huawei’s “far ahead” declarations, and now Xiaomi’s SU7 achieving both traffic and sales success—China has risen to become the world’s top car seller. Yet what’s even more astonishing is the country’s obsession with chasing internet traffic, something that global automakers can scarcely imagine, let alone understand.

In the era of online virality, some companies managed to seize brief attention, but to gain a lasting foothold and secure future growth, only product strength will suffice. As consumer focus shifts from traffic to actual products, another wave of companies is bound to be eliminated by the times.

Every new stage of human development feels strangely familiar—it’s because the same developmental template is being replicated across different industries. In the end, no matter how much things change, the essence remains: traffic is an illusion, but sales are real.

From traffic to product, and ultimately to brand—now is the time for China’s auto industry to finally repay the debts it has accumulated over the years.