在 2020 年为乔·拜登赢得了总统职位。卡玛拉·哈里斯 （Kamala Harris） 今年秋天能保持蓝色吗？
2022 年，宾夕法尼亚州兰开斯特县的农田。特朗普在 2016 年在宾夕法尼亚州的胜利标志着自 1980 年代以来共和党在该州的首次总统胜利。
当乔·拜登总统于 2020 年 11 月赢得宾夕法尼亚州时，这对他来说必须是一个特殊的时刻。这位总统不仅出生在斯克兰顿，而且这场胜利使他超过了赢得白宫的 270 票选举人团门槛。
凭借19张选举人票 - 所有州中最高的计数之一 - 基石州今年将再次成为前总统唐纳德·特朗普和民主党候选人副总统卡马拉·哈里斯之间的激烈竞争的主要奖品。仅凭这个数字就表明，它可能是 2024 年白宫竞选中最重要的摇摆州。
根据按部就班的定义，摇摆州是指“被认为在总统选举结果中发挥关键作用”并且民主党和共和党候选人“支持率相似”的州。每个总统周期的摇摆州组通常相似，但由于人口结构变化等因素，可能会出现变化。例如，佐治亚州最近在拜登出人意料地在 2020 年获胜和其他低票胜利后，进入了摇摆州类别。
尽管宾夕法尼亚州对其战场的地位并不陌生，但特朗普在 2016 年在那里的胜利阻止了民主党候选人连续赢得该州的胜利。四年后，拜登的胜利使他获得了一堵“蓝墙”，其中还包括密歇根州和威斯康星州——这也是今年的关键摇摆州——并最终入主白宫。特朗普本人在 2016 年赢得了这三个州，并希望吸引宾夕法尼亚州的选民回来。现在，他必须击败哈里斯，而不是基石州的土生土长的儿子，哈里斯在拜登结束对第二个任期的追求后，于 7 月升至民主党票数的榜首。
When President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in November 2020, it had to be a special moment for him. Not only was the president born in Scranton, but the victory put him above the 270-vote Electoral College threshold to win the White House.
With 19 electoral votes – one of the highest counts among all states – the Keystone State again will be a major prize this year in a tight race between former President Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. That number alone points to it as potentially the most important swing state in the 2024 race for the White House.
A swing state, according to a by-the-book definition, is one that’s “considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections” and where candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties “have similar levels of support.” The group of swing states each presidential cycle is often similar, although variations can occur due to factors like changing demographics. Georgia, for example, recently swung into the swing state category in the wake of Biden surprisingly carrying it in 2020 and other lower-ticket victories.
Though Pennsylvania isn’t a stranger to its status as a battleground, Trump’s win there in 2016 stopped a streak of Democratic candidates carrying the state. Four years later, Biden’s win allowed him to secure a “blue wall” that also included Michigan and Wisconsin – key swing states this year as well – and ultimately the White House. Trump won each of those three states himself in 2016, and is hoping to lure Pennsylvania voters back. Now, instead of the Keystone State’s native son, he’ll have to defeat Harris, who rose to the top of the Democratic ticket in July after Biden ended his pursuit for a second term in office.
以下是您需要了解的有关宾夕法尼亚州的所有信息——宾夕法尼亚州在最新一期的 U.S. News 最佳州项目中排名第 40 位——作为 2024 年的战场。
为什么宾夕法尼亚州在总统竞选中很重要美国新闻在 10 月将宾夕法尼亚州评为 2024 年总统选举的七个“折腾”州之一。尽管特朗普在 2016 年的胜利最近很少见：自 1992 年以来，民主党在每次选举中都赢得了该州。然而，共和党人在整个 1980 年代都赢得了宾夕法尼亚州。
基石州的 19 张选举人票与伊利诺伊州并列所有州中的第五多。而且，由于过去 12 位总统选举获胜者中有 10 位赢得了宾夕法尼亚州，这可能被证明是竞选最终结果的风向标。CNN 今年早些时候的民意调查发现，该州每 10 名选民中约有 4 人在考虑总统人选时将经济视为首要问题。这背后是保护民主（约占 25%），移民和堕胎权各占 10% 以上
在退出竞选之前，拜登今年曾多次访问该州，包括 4 月长途跋涉前往他的家乡斯克兰顿，这是 2024 年战场拉克瓦纳县最大的城市。在她成为民主党新任旗手后不久，哈里斯于8月6日访问了费城参加集会，在那里她介绍了她的竞选搭档、明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·沃尔茨（Tim Walz），他可以吸引“蓝墙”摇摆州的工人阶级选民。Before he exited the race, Biden had visited the state multiple times this year, including making an April trek to his hometown of Scranton, the largest city in 2024 battleground Lackawanna County. Not long after she became the Democratic Party’s new standard-bearer, Harris visited Philadelphia on Aug. 6 for a rally where she introduced her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who could appeal to working-class voters in the “blue wall” swing states.
据报道，副总统还考虑了宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗（Josh Shapiro），他在费城集会上介绍了新的民主党候选人，称哈里斯“久经沙场，随时准备出发”。据白宫称，副总统于 2024 年第八次返回该州，参加 8 月 18 日在匹兹堡开始的竞选活动。9月13日，她在费城举行的第一场总统辩论中与特朗普对峙后，返回宾夕法尼亚州。她还于 9 月 25 日访问了匹兹堡参加竞选活动，仅仅几周后，哈里斯于 10 月 14 日出现在伊利的集会上。10月21日，副总统再次回到战场，与前共和党众议员利兹·切尼（Liz Cheney）一起参加了在9月支持哈里斯的活动。哈里斯还于10月27日在费城进行了竞选活动，与当地教会的黑人会众交谈，并在城市娱乐中心的讲话中特别提到了年轻选民。
与此同时，这位前总统于 2 月访问了哈里斯堡，在全国步枪协会 （National Rifle Association） 的活动中发表讲话，他告诉成员，如果他在秋季获胜，“没有人会对你们的枪支动手”。特朗普还声称，如果他不回到白宫，“他们将更改宾夕法尼亚州的名称”，似乎指的是纪念历史人物的遗址和建筑物的名称更改。在4月首次刑事审判开始前几天，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州施内克斯维尔（Schnecksville）举行了一场集会，他批评了主持审判的法官，并将民主党人描绘成试图阻止他在白宫连任。他后来被判犯有 34 项重罪。
7月14日，特朗普在摇摆州巴特勒市的一次集会上被暗杀未遂，幸存下来。这位前总统在10月5日——选举日前一个月——回到了那个地点参加另一场集会，并表示如果他在11月获胜，“我们将实现美国梦。特朗普后来在10月14日费城郊区的一个市政厅发表了讲话。10月19日，这位前总统在宾夕法尼亚州拉特罗布（Latrobe）的一次集会上发表了讲话，该集会被认为是他在竞选最后阶段的闭幕陈词的开始。在冗长而漫无边际的演讲中，特朗普亵渎地侮辱了哈里斯——称她为“副总统”——并评论了出生在拉特罗布、八年前去世的著名高尔夫球手阿诺德·帕尔默（Arnold Palmer）的生殖器。特朗普于 10 月 29 日返回摇摆州，在德雷塞尔山停留，参加关于影响美国老年人问题的圆桌会议，并在阿伦敦举行集会，在那里他强调了拜登早些时候发表的有争议的言论。
The Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes tie it with Illinois for the fifth-most among all states. And, with 10 of the past 12 presidential election winners having won Pennsylvania, it could prove to be a bellwether for the race’s ultimate outcome.宾夕法尼亚州选民面临的关键问题
The vice president also reportedly considered Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who introduced the new Democratic ticket at the Philadelphia rally, describing Harris as “battle-tested and ready to go.” The vice president returned to the state– for the eighth time in 2024, according to the White House – for campaign events starting in Pittsburgh on Aug. 18. On Sept. 13, she returned to Pennsylvania on the heels of her face-off against Trump in the first presidential debate, which was hosted in Philadelphia. She also visited Pittsburgh for a campaign event on Sept. 25, and just a few weeks later, Harris appeared at a rally in Erie on Oct. 14.
The vice president was back in the battleground yet again for an Oct. 21 event in Chester County with former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney, who endorsed Harris in September. Harris also campaigned in Philadelphia on Oct. 27, speaking with a local church’s Black congregation and singling out young voters in remarks at a city recreation center.
The former president, meanwhile, visited Harrisburg in February to speak at a National Rifle Association event, where he told members that “no one will lay a finger on your firearms” if he wins in the fall. Trump also claimed that if he doesn’t return to the White House, “they’re going to change the name of Pennsylvania,” seemingly pointing to name changes of sites and buildings honoring historical figures. Days before the start of his first criminal trial in April, Trump held a rally in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania, where he criticized the judge presiding over the trial and portrayed Democrats as trying to keep him from another term in the White House.
He was later found guilty of 34 felony counts. On July 14, Trump survived an assassination attempt at a rally in the swing state’s city of Butler. The former president returned to that site for another rally on Oct. 5 – a month prior to Election Day – and said if he wins in November, “We’re going to have the American dream.” Trump later spoke at an Oct. 14 town hall in the suburbs of Philadelphia. On Oct. 19, the former president gave remarks at a Latrobe, Pennsylvania, rally that was billed as the beginning of his closing argument in the final stretch of the campaign. Amid a lengthy and rambling speech,
Trump profanely insulted Harris – calling her “a s— vice president” – and commented on the genitalia of Arnold Palmer, a famous golfer who was born in Latrobe and died eight years ago. Trump returned to the swing state on Oct. 29 with stops in Drexel Hill for a roundtable event on issues affecting older Americans and in Allentown for a rally, where he highlighted controversial comments made by Biden earlier.
特朗普的竞选搭档、俄亥俄州参议员 JD 万斯于 8 月 6 日访问了费城——哈里斯-沃尔茨首次联合集会的同一天和地点。特朗普竞选团队在宣布该活动的新闻稿中写道，特朗普-万斯政府将“通过为美国家庭重新引入常识性经济政策，恢复宾夕法尼亚州和我们伟大国家其他地区的法律和秩序，使美国再次伟大”。
宾夕法尼亚州在过去总统选举中的投票情况拜登在 2020 年以微弱优势赢得了该州，为他赢得了总统职位。2016 年，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州的得票率甚至比前国务卿希拉里·克林顿 （Hillary Clinton） 的得票率更低。
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, visited Philadelphia on Aug. 6 – the same day and location of the first joint Harris-Walz rally. The Trump campaign wrote in a news release announcing the event that a Trump-Vance administration would “make America Great again by reintroducing common-sense economic policies for American families and restore law and order across Pennsylvania and the rest of our great nation.”
How Pennsylvania Voted in Past Presidential ElectionsBiden won the state by slim margin in 2020, which clinched the presidency for him. In 2016, Trump carried Pennsylvania by an even smaller percentage of votes over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
宾夕法尼亚州的主要选民群体宾夕法尼亚州近四分之三 （74.1%） 的人口是非西班牙裔白人，黑人或非裔美国人 （12.3%） 和西班牙裔人口 （8.9%） 在种族或民族方面位居第二。宾夕法尼亚州的人口老龄化，20% 的 65 岁以上人口超过了 17.7% 的全国标准。在 2020 年人口普查后，该州失去了一张选举人票和一个国会席位，并在 2023 年减少了约 10,400 人的人口。
由于宾夕法尼亚州的人口结构，白人工人阶级选民是那里两位候选人的关键群体。他们在 2016 年是特朗普的重要支持者，民主党人在拜登 2020 年获胜的道路上更广泛地与欧盟取得了一些进展。
从地理上讲，基石州的郊区选民对拜登在 2020 年至关重要，因为他在费城周围的领县和匹兹堡所在地阿勒格尼县的表现比克林顿 2016 年的表现取得了关键收益。
该州的老年人口也将至关重要。中年和老年选民是特朗普在 2016 年获胜联盟的一部分，尽管输了，但他在 2020 年在宾夕法尼亚州仍然与他们一起表现良好。
宾夕法尼亚州选民面临的关键问题CNN 今年早些时候的民意调查发现，该州每 10 名选民中约有 4 人在考虑总统人选时将经济视为首要问题。这背后是保护民主（约占 25%），移民和堕胎权各占 10% 以上。
Key Voter Groups in PennsylvaniaNearly three-quarters (74.1%) of Pennsylvania’s population is non-Hispanic white, with the Black or African American population (12.3%) and Hispanic population (8.9%) accounting for the next-largest groups by race or ethnicity. Pennsylvania also has an older population, with 20% of people at least 65 years old to exceed the national mark of 17.7%. The state lost one electoral vote, as well as a congressional seat, after the 2020 census, and saw its population decline by about 10,400 people in 2023.
Because of Pennsylvania’s demographics, white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates there. They were important supporters of Trump in 2016, and Democrats made some inroads with the bloc more broadly on Biden’s way to victory in 2020.
Geographically, suburban voters in the Keystone State were crucial for Biden in 2020, as he made critical gains over Clinton’s 2016 performance in the collar counties surrounding Philadelphia and in Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh.
The state’s older population will be crucial as well. Middle-aged and older voters were part of Trump's winning coalition in 2016, and he still performed well with them in Pennsylvania in 2020 despite the loss.
Key Issues to Voters in PennsylvaniaPolling earlier this year from CNN found that about 4 in 10 voters in the state viewed the economy as the top issue as they considered their presidential choice. Behind that was protecting democracy at about 25%, and immigration and abortion rights at more than 10% each.
Photos: On The Harris-Walz Trail
Findings from a survey released around the same time by Emerson College Polling and The Hill painted a similar picture. The economy was the top issue for 36% of Pennsylvania voters polled, followed by crime (12%), immigration (11%), threats to democracy (11%), health care (9%), education (7%), housing affordability (6%) and abortion access (4%).
艾默生学院民意调查公司（Emerson College Polling）和《国会山报》（The Hill）大约在同一时间发布的一项调查结果也描绘了类似的情况。经济是 36% 的宾夕法尼亚州受访选民的首要问题，其次是犯罪 （12%）、移民 （11%）、对民主的威胁 （11%）、医疗保健 （9%）、教育 （7%）、住房负担能力 （6%） 和堕胎机会 （4%）。
候选人如何解决对宾夕法尼亚州选民很重要的问题.
经济： 哈里斯在 8 月中旬于北卡罗来纳州举行的一次活动中公布了她的经济计划的细节——这是一项雄心勃勃的民粹主义议程，专注于降低劳动人民的成本和建立中产阶级。该议程包括为首次购房者提供 25,000 美元的奖励，为有新生儿的家庭提供 6,000 美元的税收抵免，禁止杂货价格欺诈以及处方药费用上限。哈里斯于 9 月 25 日在匹兹堡发表的一次以经济为重点的演讲中补充说，她是一名“资本家”，认为“公司需要按规则行事”。她还承诺坚持拜登的承诺，即那些收入低于 400,000 美元的人将免于更高的税收，并提议将公司税率从 21% 提高到 28%。
与此同时，特朗普在 8 月访问北卡罗来纳州期间详细阐述了他对第二任期经济的愿景，他说如果当选，他将降低税收并“钻、宝贝、钻”以增加美国能源生产。他还关注通货膨胀，同时将物价上涨的责任归咎于拜登和哈里斯。在他的计划中，特朗普提议将在美国生产商品的公司税率降至 15%，并将进口商品的关税提高到 20% 左右（中国的税率可能在 60% 左右）。他和哈里斯都提议削减小费收入的税收。
How the Candidates Have Addressed Issues Important to Pennsylvania VotersThe Economy: Harris unveiled details about her economic plan – an ambitious populist agenda focused on reducing costs for working people and building up the middle – during a mid-August event in North Carolina. The agenda includes a $25,000 incentive for first-time homebuyers, a $6,000 tax credit for families with a newborn, a ban on price gouging for groceries and a cap on prescription drug costs. Harris added in an economy-focused speech on Sept. 25 in Pittsburgh that she is a “capitalist” that believes “companies need to play by the rules.” She also has pledged to stick with a Biden promise that those earning less than $400,000 would be spared from higher taxes, and has proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
Trump, meanwhile, elaborated on his vision for a second-term economy during his own August visit to North Carolina, where he said if elected he would lower taxes and “drill, baby, drill” to increase U.S. energy production. He also focused on inflation while laying the blame for rising prices at the feet of Biden and Harris. Among his plans, Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% for companies who produce their goods in the U.S. and increasing tariffs to up to 20% on imported goods (China could see a rate of around 60%). Both he and Harris have proposed cutting taxes on tipped income.
“特朗普总统对美国经济复兴的愿景是降低税收、提高薪水并为美国工人提供更多工作，”他的竞选网站说，他还将特朗普黑人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率此前的低失业率归功于特朗普。
犯罪： 特朗普竞选网站称，“没有比迅速恢复美国的法律、秩序和公共安全更重要的了”，并补充说，这位前总统计划振兴警察部门，并提供“创纪录的”资金来雇用和再培训警官。该网站称，他还将增加对袭击执法人员的处罚，并“将联邦检察官和国民警卫队增至高犯罪率社区”。
特朗普还将该国南部边境的移民问题与犯罪联系起来。这位前总统于 9 月 6 日接受了警察兄弟会 （Fraternal Order of Police） 的支持，他在工会大会上的讲话中预测，他返回白宫的那一天“就是卡马拉的犯罪浪潮结束的那一天”。在与哈里斯的辩论中，特朗普错误地声称美国的犯罪率“飙升”，尽管联邦调查局的数据表明暴力犯罪有所减少。
哈里斯在辩论中并没有过多地讨论犯罪，但在她的竞选网站上，她提到了她作为地区检察官和州检察长在打击犯罪方面的根植于加州的经历。作为总统，她还誓言要禁止攻击性武器和大容量弹匣，要求进行普遍的背景调查，支持危险信号法，并“继续投资于资助执法”。
Crime: The Trump campaign website states that “there is no higher priority than quickly restoring law and order and public safety in America,” adding that the former president plans to revitalize police departments and deliver “record” funding to hire and retrain officers. He also would increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement officers and “surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities,” the site says.
Trump also has tied the country’s immigration problems at the southern border to crime. The former president, who accepted the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police on Sept. 6, predicted in remarks at the union’s convention that the day he returns to the White House “is the day that Kamala’s crime wave comes to an end.” During the debate with Harris, Trump falsely claimed crime in America is “through the roof,” though data from the FBI points to a decrease in violent crime.
Harris did not discuss crime much at the debate, but on her campaign website, she notes her California-rooted experience as a district attorney and state attorney general with regard to battling crime. She also vows as president to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, require universal background checks, support red flag laws and “continue to invest in funding law enforcement.”
移民： 哈里斯支持立法者今年早些时候试图通过的一项两党移民改革法案，并在 8 月亚利桑那州集会上的讲话中指出，特朗普成功地扼杀了该法案。这位副总统补充说，如果她赢得选举，她将签署这项立法成为法律。哈里斯指出，在她担任加州总检察长期间，她“追捕跨国帮派、贩毒集团和人口贩运者”。她在 9 月与特朗普的辩论中就移民问题使用了类似的信息。
特朗普长期以来一直将移民作为其竞选纲领的重要组成部分，最近表示移民正在“毒害我们国家的血液”，拜登在向国会发表的国情咨文中指出了这一言论。这位前总统还发誓，如果再次当选，将发起大规模的驱逐行动。
在辩论中，他一再将话题引回到移民问题上，称哈里斯为“边境沙皇”——这是她从未得到过的头衔——并批评她和拜登在执政期间增加了过境人数。特朗普还重申了俄亥俄州斯普林菲尔德市的海地移民偷窃和吃掉人们的宠物的说法。官员们表示，没有证据表明此类事情发生。
Immigration: Harris supported a bipartisan immigration reform bill that lawmakers attempted to pass earlier this year, and noted Trump’s successful efforts to kill it in remarks at an August rally in Arizona. The vice president added that if she wins the election, she would sign the legislation into law. Harris noted that in her time as the attorney general of California, she “went after the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and human traffickers.” She used similar messaging on immigration during her September debate with Trump.
Trump has long made immigration a big part of his platform, recently saying migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” a remark that Biden called out in his State of the Union address to Congress. The former president also has vowed to launch a massive deportation effort if reelected.
During the debate, he repeatedly steered the conversation back to immigration, calling Harris the “border czar” – a title she never received – and criticizing her and Biden for increased border crossings during their administration. Trump also repeated a claim that Haitian migrants in the city of Springfield, Ohio, were stealing and eating people’s pets. Officials have said there is no evidence of such things occurring.
流产：作为副总统，哈里斯一直是政府在生殖权利问题上的主要声音，并将这个问题作为她演讲的一部分。她在8月在亚利桑那州的同一次讲话中指出，特朗普的最高法院提名人帮助推翻了在罗伊诉韦德案（Roe v.Wade）的裁决，并表示美国有20多个州已经颁布了“特朗普堕胎禁令”。哈里斯承诺，如果她成为总统，国会“通过一项法案，恢复美国每个女性的生育自由”，她将签署该法案。在9月与特朗普的辩论中，哈里斯说，这位前总统“不应该告诉女人如何处理自己的身体”。
多年来，特朗普在堕胎问题上采取了一系列立场——包括称自己为美国历史上“最支持堕胎权的总统”。今年4月，他说这个问题应该由各州来决定，他不会签署全国性的堕胎禁令。特朗普在辩论中重申了这一立场，称他“没有理由”支持全国禁令，“因为我们已经得到了每个人都想要的”，堕胎限制是由州一级决定的。他还对民主党人支持杀害出生后的孩子提出了虚假声明。
截至 10 月 30 日，《纽约时报》的民调平均值显示，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州以 49% 的支持率领先不到一个百分点。
在其他地方，截至 10 月 29 日，专注于摇摆州的 RealClearPolling 平均值显示，特朗普以类似的优势领先于哈里斯。
Abortion: As vice president, Harris has been the administration’s leading voice on reproductive rights and has made the issue part of her stump speech. She noted during the same August remarks in Arizona that Trump’s Supreme Court nominees helped overturn the federal right to abortion cemented in Roe v. Wade, and said more than 20 U.S. states have enacted a “Trump abortion ban.” Harris promised that if she becomes president and Congress “passes a bill to restore reproductive freedoms for every woman In America,” she would sign it. At the September debate with Trump, Harris said the former president “should not be telling a woman what to do with her body.”
Trump has taken a range of stances on abortion over the years – including calling himself “the most pro-life president” in U.S. history. In April, he said the issue should be left up to states to decide and that he would not sign a national abortion ban. Trump reiterated that stance during the debate, saying he had “no reason” to endorse a national ban “because we've gotten what everybody wanted” with abortion restrictions decided at the state level. He also made false claims about Democrats supporting the killing of a child after birth.
民意调查显示什么截至 10 月 30 日，《纽约时报》的民调平均值显示，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州以 49% 的支持率领先不到一个百分点。
在其他地方，截至 10 月 29 日，专注于摇摆州的 RealClearPolling 平均值显示，特朗普以类似的优势领先于哈里斯。
Decision Guides
Where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand on the issues that matter:
“President Trump’s vision for America’s economic revival is lower taxes, bigger paychecks, and more jobs for American workers,” his campaign website says, also giving Trump credit for previously low unemployment rates among Black and Hispanic Americans.
What Polling ShowsA polling average by The New York Times as of Oct. 30 had Trump leading by less than a percentage point with 49% support in Pennsylvania.
Elsewhere, a RealClearPolling average focused on the swing state as of Oct. 29 had Trump ahead of Harris by a similar margin.
